For new energy vehicles, besides impediments to the development of new energy vehicles, such as power battery energy density, cruising range, and cost, it will take a long time to profitability. Playing experience. Although the recent remarks on the replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles have been rampant, new energy vehicles are still “weak†in the face of fuel vehicles that have a history of more than 100 years. For new energy vehicles, besides impediments to the development of new energy vehicles, such as power battery energy density, cruising range, and cost, it will take a long time to profitability. Playing experience. So far, in China, the world’s largest new energy automobile city, car companies are still relying on government subsidies like babies to “nurtureâ€, it is difficult to “weanâ€, and even for two consecutive years from 2015 to 2016 on global new energy vehicles. BYD, the champion of sales, is no exception. This year, the domestic new energy automobile market was once bleak, it is precisely this evidence. New energy vehicles in the policy window period fell to the bottom in January this year. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 5,400 vehicles, which was a sharp drop of 61% year-on-year. BYD sales also plummeted to 605 vehicles in January this year. After that, with the implementation of new energy vehicle subsidy policies and the promotion catalogue, the sales of new energy vehicles rose month by month. However, the decline in subsidies still affects the growth rate. Since 2014, the annual sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles has doubled. From 2016, the growth rate has slowed down significantly. Last year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 507,000 vehicles, an increase of 53% year-on-year. In the first half of this year, new energy vehicles sold 195,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. The auto market in China accounted for no more than a regression and fell from 1.8% last year's market share to 1.5%. Unprofitable Toyota, Volkswagen and General Motors and other traditional car giants have earned enough money. However, it is difficult for companies to make money from the field of electric vehicles. This is one of the important reasons why the giants of multinational car companies are generally waiting in China and have not yet made electric cars (EVs) in China, even if it is the most powerful Tesla. Latin America has not yet achieved annual profit. In September 2014, Qichen, a joint venture brand owned by Dongfeng Nissan, was the first pure electric vehicle at the time, which was priced at 267,800 to 281,800 yuan. According to the country’s 2014 new energy vehicle subsidy policy, the morning wind with a cruising range of 175 kilometers can receive a state subsidy of 47,500 yuan, while local subsidies in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are not the same, including those in Beijing. The supplement of the market's national supplement is 95,000 yuan, which accounts for more than one-third of the selling price, and the reference price after subsidies is 172,800 to 168,800 yuan. However, even with such a generous subsidy, the prototype vehicle is the morning breeze of the Nissan Leaf, and the development of the new energy market in China is still not satisfactory. Nissan Leaf, which has more than 200,000 cumulative sales worldwide, ranks second with 30,762 units in January-July 2017 global sales of new energy passenger vehicles. In the foreign countries, the citron was cold after entering the Chinese market. According to the sales data of the CLUCC, the sale of morning wind in 2016 was 1916 units. With the retreat of new energy subsidies, the continued launch of new models of independent brands, and the intensified market competition, the morning breeze became one of the worst-selling sedan models in China in the first half of this year. This year, Chenfeng EV can enjoy a national supplement of 36,000 yuan, which is 20% lower than last year, while local subsidies are based on a 1:0.5 ratio of 18,000 yuan, both adding up to 54,000 yuan, compared to 2014. Subsidy is reduced by more than 40%. Although the morning breeze made some concessions on the price, due to the reduction of subsidies, the morning breeze is currently the lowest price in the country of 176,800 yuan, while domestic independent new energy vehicles are mainly concentrated in the price of 50,000 to 150,000 yuan. The situation of the morning breeze is getting more and more difficult. It is far away from the sales target of new energy vehicles that was announced in 2018 and will complete sales of 50,000 vehicles each year. Renault-Nissan Alliance President and CEO Carlos Ghosn once said that the poor sales of Kai Chen Morrison was due to the high pricing, and said that Nissan will launch lower prices and longer range in the Chinese market in the future. new energy vehicles. The First Financial reporter learned from relevant industry sources that the development of a new car will require about 1 billion yuan. With the current sales volume, the morning breeze could not be profitable. In February of this year, the Qichen brand was separated from Dongfeng Nissan, and its identity was transformed into its own brand. The morning windmill type was also being adjusted in terms of sales. Dongfeng Nissan is planning to introduce the first domestically produced pure electric vehicle among the joint venture auto makers by the end of this year after the new energy vehicle is returned to zero due to the separation of Kai Chen. Some joint-venture brands that have put plug-in hybrids on the market have generally reported more losses due to higher costs and less sales. Compared with joint-venture brands, self-owned brands have taken advantage of subsidies and other policies to make a quick move in the new energy vehicle sector. In the first half of this year, the domestic top ten new energy vehicles were sold by independent brands, among which BYD continued to hold the throne of the sales champion. Although BYD did not disclose the profitability of the new energy vehicle segment separately, as the largest profiter of domestic new energy vehicle subsidies, BYD is considered to be a car company with a better profitability in the field of new energy vehicles. Han Weiqi, a researcher at Qunyi Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. pointed out in his analysis report as early as 2015 that the gross profit margin of BYD's new energy vehicles is basically above 20%, with a period cost of 12%~15%, and a net profit rate of about 5%~10%. , BYD has achieved profitability for new energy vehicles in 2014. After 2015, battery capacity has increased significantly, making its performance beyond current expectations. From 2015 to 2016, with the rapid growth in sales of new energy vehicles, BYD’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies has increased dramatically. In 2015 and 2016, BYD's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.82 billion yuan and 5.05 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 551.3% and 78.9%, respectively. Qiu Junjun, a new energy auto expert, recently said in an interview with a reporter from the First Financial Bureau that besides BYD, the new energy vehicles such as BAIC and Chery had a certain scale of brand and should be profitable in the book. However, since the beginning of this year, new energy subsidies have fallen sharply, which poses a certain operating pressure on new energy car companies. This year, the national new subsidy standard subsidizes passenger cars by 20% according to the 2016 subsidy standard. Subsidy standards for passenger cars generally fall by 40% in 2016 standards, and even 60% for fast-charged pure electric buses. . At the same time, the mode of subsidy allocation was changed from the original allocation at the beginning of the year to the year after year. In addition, the cumulative mileage of new energy vehicles purchased by non-private users must exceed 30,000 kilometers to receive state subsidies. In addition, the ceiling for subsidy for local financial cycling is stipulated, which does not exceed 50% of the central government subsidy, which was previously 1:1. In the first half of this year, BYD was affected by the adjustment of this new energy policy. The sales of new energy vehicles and net profits all declined. Among them, BYD's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%. When an insider from BYD recently told an interview with a CBN reporter that the national subsidies for new energy vehicles have fallen, the plug-in hybrid vehicle countries will make up 24,000 yuan. According to the new standard this year, the locality is 12,000 yuan. Due to various reasons, many local governments do not have the subsidy of RMB 12,000 for new energy automobile brands in other places. However, taking into consideration that the prices of new energy vehicles everywhere are as uniform as possible, BYD decides to take this amount himself. Make up for consumers. The first financial reporter learned that the 2017 version of BYD Qin, which was listed not long ago, was priced at 185,900 yuan, and the subsidized price was 149,900 yuan. The manufacturers also carried out short-term sales promotion. By July 31st, buyers of Tmall flagship stores could enjoy a subsidy of 10,000 yuan for electric trips, or equivalent car purchases. The actual payment price was 139,900 yuan. However, even if the manufacturers make a profit, the final price of Qin is still slightly higher than before because of the substantial fall in new energy vehicle subsidies. BYD's first plug-in hybrid model Qin was launched at the end of 2013. In the same year, the national supplement for hybrid passenger vehicles was 35,000 yuan, and the subsidies for 2014 and 2015 were 33,250 yuan and 31,500 yuan, which will be reduced by 5% and 10% respectively compared to 2013, and the national supplement will be further in 2016. Retreat to 30,000 yuan. The Qin’s previous guidance price was 1800,800-21,800 yuan, offsetting the national supplement of about 67,000 yuan plus ground compensation, the final selling price had been between 123,400 yuan and 143,300 yuan. There were industry analysts interviewed by the First Financial Reporter. According to industry conditions, Qin had estimated the profitability of Qin’s bicycles. Qin’s fuel truck prototype costs about 70,000 to 80,000 yuan, plus the cost of batteries and motors is about 60,000 to 70,000 yuan, according to the previous price, so Qin's monthly sales of more than 1,000 vehicles can basically support the level of support, monthly sales of 2000 to 3000 vehicles will achieve profitability. According to the data from the First Financial Review and Travel Union, in 2015, BYD Qin sold more than 30,000 vehicles throughout the year and had an average monthly sales of more than 2,000 vehicles. Since the beginning of this year, Qin’s national supplements have been reduced to 36,000 yuan, which is almost half of the 70,000 yuan in 2013. In January and February of this year, Qin's sales fell sharply to 208 units and 543 units respectively, and it rose back to more than 1,000 vehicles since March. First Financial reporter learned that this year's new energy vehicle manufacturers have transferred the pressure of new energy subsidies to power battery suppliers. Unlike other car companies, BYD’s battery is self-sufficient, and the pressure to subsidize new energy vehicles is only internally digested. BYD’s insiders refused to disclose to the First Financial reporter the price changes of BYD batteries over the past few years and the proportion of new energy vehicle manufacturing costs. Forced battery Power Battery Analyst Wu Hui recently said in an interview with a CBN reporter that due to the impact of new energy subsidies, the price of lithium batteries has plummeted by 20%~30% this year, and the price of the batteries is about 1~1.3Yuan/Wh, and the battery prices have fallen. Faster than expected. Once the cost of power battery drops below 1 yuan, the competitive advantage of new energy vehicles will gradually show up. At the same time, the energy density of lithium batteries is also increasing. The energy density of lithium iron phosphate monomer is now raised to about 150Wh/kg, and the ternary is generally more than 200Wh/kg. Since the beginning of this year, the price of power batteries has fallen sharply. However, the price of raw materials for power batteries is continuously rising. Power battery companies are squeezed in the gaps and are under pressure. They are forced to continuously upgrade their technology and scale, and they will be eliminated. Wang Zhenyu, general manager of Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Wotema") recently said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News that in recent years, Watermar has increased investment in R&D to increase product energy density and promote technology. Advances in technology and the development of economies of scale have driven a gradual decline in battery costs. From 2015 to 2017, the annual cost reduction of nearly 10% to 15% has been achieved. From the current situation, the proportion of power batteries in the cost of new energy commercial vehicles has dropped from about 50% to about 30% to 40%. Wang Zhenyu said that in the face of new energy vehicle subsidies gradually withdrawing and even canceling in the future, Waterma mainly took measures from the aspects of technology, production, products, and operating modes. For example, in the operating mode, Wattama is relying on Waterma The advantages of industrial clusters of innovation alliances, through technical cooperation innovation and innovative operating models, to achieve cost reduction. At present, there are more than 60,000 electric buses, commuter cars, and logistic vehicles that carry Waterma's batteries in the country. Wotima's subsidiary, Fufu Energy's innovative bus operation model has been implemented in Linfen, Shanxi Province, etc. Reliance on profit operations. In the future, Wattmar will continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency through technology innovation and model innovation, so that new energy vehicles will substantially increase their profits without compensation. As to how much the cost of the power battery is reduced, the market share of electric vehicles can surpass the fuel vehicles. Wang Zhenyu believes that this is not a good judgment. He pointed out that the market share of electric vehicles is not only affected by the battery technology, but also by the supply of lithium raw materials, charging grid restrictions and the impact of charging security, it is difficult to measure with a single cost. As for the supply of raw materials, the increase in the cost of raw materials such as cobalt mines and lithium ore caused an increase in the cost of batteries. In terms of charging, the current grid load is heavier, especially when local electric grids are under greater pressure. The distribution network is under extreme pressure; there is also the safety of the battery, whether it is the battery itself, or the distribution system of the automobile and the power grid. According to Guangzhou Automobile's assessment of the market competitiveness of electric passenger cars, if the battery system energy density can be greater than 150Wh/kg, the price is lower than 0.6 yuan / Wh, cruising range of 400 kilometers, while having a certain fast charge capacity, such as within 30 minutes With a sufficient 80%, and in combination with an efficient and fast charging pile, and satisfying these conditions, an electric passenger car can replace the same-grade fuel car. Qiu Junjun said that when the cruising range reaches 400 to 500 kilometers, the energy density of the power battery is basically 300 Wh/kg, and the battery company can basically wait until 2020. The higher the cruising range, the higher the cost of electric vehicles and the higher the technical requirements. In a longer period of time, the manufacturing cost of electric vehicles will still be higher than that of fuel vehicles. It is not so easy to completely replace the fuel vehicles. It needs to reduce costs through technology and scale. When to catch up As a leader in domestic new energy vehicles for more than a decade, BYD sold 125,000 fuel vehicles in the first half of this year, while new energy vehicles sold less than 40,000 vehicles, which is less than 1/3 of the sales of fuel vehicles. Chairman and President of the BYD Board of Directors Wang Chuanfu had said in an interview with a reporter from the First Finance Bureau before that that in 2020, new energy vehicles will account for 90% of BYD's auto business, and the time will mature to 100%. Currently, the field of buses and logistics vehicles is considered to be the fastest-growing area for new energy vehicles. Many automobile manufacturers such as BYD have accelerated their layout in these areas. In the operation of the new energy vehicle industry chain, there are also many emerging companies. As the largest pure electric vehicle logistics leasing company and capacity sharing platform in China, Xinwo Yunli has so far put in more than 20,000 pure-electricity logistics vehicles, over 400 large-scale charging stations and more than 800 mobile charging vehicles. Although there is a time difference in income due to the purchase and operation of vehicles, it is expected that Xin WoWun will lose RMB 217 million in 2017. However, Zhao Le, the chairman of Xinwu Yunli, is still optimistic about the development of pure electric logistics vehicles and believes that the new Wolong in 2018 is expected to achieve profitability. In an interview with a reporter from the First Finance Ministry, Zhao Le pointed out that the energy consumption per 100 kilometers of traditional fuel logistics vehicles is about 12 liters. The current fuel market price is not less than 6 yuan/liter, and the energy consumption per kilometer converted is at least 0.7 yuan. 100 kilometers of pure electric logistics vehicles consumes 25 degrees, and the market electricity price is 0.8 yuan/degree (excluding charge service fees). The energy consumption per kilometer converted is at least 0.2 yuan. In his opinion, in the future, with the expansion of scale, the operating costs of pure electric logistics vehicles will further decline, and the advantages will become more apparent. At present, the domestic market for 20 million trucks will gradually be replaced by new energy vehicles. On September 24th, Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Centenary Association, expressed at the Changzhou forum of the China Electric Vehicles Centennial Committee that with the continuous advancement of batteries, motors, and electronic control technologies, as well as information and networking based on pure electric vehicles. With the maturity of intelligence, by 2025 at the latest, the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles will meet or exceed the traditional fuel vehicles. Chen Qingtai believes that many countries get together and put forward a timetable for the ban on the sale of traditional fuel vehicles. This fire in China could not be added. When the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles meets or exceeds that of fuel vehicles, the market has enough driving forces to make consumers The customary transformation, as to why it is necessary to add this fire, the decisive significance of the government’s decision is to give the community a long-term expectation, because to fully realize the potential of electric vehicles, it is necessary to plan ahead, from energy, infrastructure, and electrification. , Informatization, industrial chain transformation, employee transfer, government supervision, laws and regulations, etc. There is a timetable that will help the government and companies coordinate and promote smoothly. He believes that the proposed timetable is an incentive for pure electric vehicle companies. It is a relentless force for traditional fuel vehicle companies and will ultimately benefit everyone. Li Anding, president of the online automobile market, took a different view. He issued a document saying that to fuel, it should not be an option for Chinese cars. He believes that in several European countries that prohibit the sale of cut-off gasoline and diesel vehicles, Norway and other Nordic environmental protection countries do not produce cars in the country, and the United Kingdom basically sells the automobile industry to German, Indian, and Chinese manufacturers. As the country with the largest production and sales volume, it is unwise for China to formulate a limited-burn schedule. It is sensible to formulate strategic countermeasures, instead of “following†fashion, making it easy to restrict the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in a limited time, and deny the auto industry’s overall achievement in optimizing fuel oil engines. Tower Crane Control Console (also called Tower Crane Linkage Console, Tower Crane Joysticks, Joystick Master Controller ) is mainly used to control the starting, speed adjusting, braking and reversing.
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Electric vehicle cost survey: profitability is not easy to temporarily "weaning" subsidies