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It is the normal “input and output†industry logic to grow beans and grow seeds. The development plan for the new energy automobile industry in China has designed the sales volume in 2015 to be 500,000, and in 2020 it is 5 million, but in 2013, Even the threshold of 20,000 vehicles cannot go beyond the threshold. It has become a twisted outcome of “fruit and produce beansâ€. It can only show that the concept of enduring the new energy automobile industry was nothing more than the grand ideal of the relevant departments trying to realize “turning overtakingâ€. Did not seriously consider to analyze what products the market can accommodate and what consumers can accept.
When an industrial plan is driven by relevant departments seeking a performance image, individual departments are concerned that the department under the reform of the major department may be merged and disappeared, and deliberately concoct a “tall†industrial plan to highlight the The necessity of the existence of departmental institutions will inevitably lead to the full failure of industry orientation and market results. This kind of satellite-based brain-shooting decision cannot be truly answered by the market. A variety of supporting measures could not keep up, but also make the new energy automobile industry into a mudflat beach.
Subsidies become local separatist
In order to achieve the performance goals of the new energy automotive industry, all car companies are bombarded into a policy cage and forced to use administrative measures to link the approval of new product introduction and capacity expansion investment of auto enterprises to the binding of new energy vehicles, so that The car companies that make new energy vehicles have to perfunctory, take some easy-to-learn shortcuts to create a “tribute†flicker, cause China’s “villages to smokeâ€, and engage in big leapfrog illusions of new energy vehicles. They are shocked by the United States and the European Union. Now. The original car companies trying to become new energy vehicles should be individual financial resources and comprehensive car strength. Engaging in new energy vehicles is a financial and market risky business. It is not something that any car company can afford.
In order to promote the development of the new energy automobile industry, the financial subsidies must be applied to improve the enthusiasm of car companies. The budget of the special subsidy for the central government can only be limited, and it can only help local governments to get involved in special subsidies. The government has “thresholds†and will inevitably feed its own children, blocking the smooth circulation of competitive new energy vehicles throughout the country; it will be forced to introduce relevant policies to force local governments to sell 30% of new energy vehicles. The products of local automobile enterprises, local governments will play games of cats and rats again, compile local procurement catalogs for new energy vehicles, and use custom “technical standard†thresholds to block the “invasion†of foreign products. Not only is it difficult for the Central Plains to compete against the deer, and market tyrants segregate again. The superior cannot win, and the strong cannot dominate.
The above-mentioned two main strategies of adopting industrial policies and subsidy policies have made the new energy automobile industry “have failed to get a first-break injuryâ€. In addition, the two-tiered financial subsidies are directly benefiting from car manufacturers, and the key factor that determines the life and death of the new energy auto industry is not car companies, but how the technical bottleneck of battery suppliers can continue to be broken. Therefore, originally "good steel on the blade" of the implementation of the subsidies should be based on battery companies, supplemented by car companies, the end of the subsidy results in the car companies to drink raw milk, battery companies drink gruel, slow down the car power The speed of technological advances in batteries, in turn, also trapped the car market of new energy vehicles.
Many goals, confusion
Now let's review the purpose and significance of China’s new energy vehicles. The first thing that was mentioned many years ago was related to safeguarding the country’s energy security. Later it became an ideal bargaining chip for the “carrying overtaking†of the automotive industry. Finally, it In 2012, the “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)†made a comprehensive statement: “Accelerating the development and development of energy-saving cars and new energy vehicles is not only effective in alleviating energy and environmental pressure, but also promoting the automotive industry. The urgent task of continuous development is also a strategy to speed up the transformation and upgrading of the auto industry and cultivate new economic growth points and international competitive advantages." If there is no market for new energy vehicles, everything will be empty.
The challenges and solutions faced by the automotive industry are to solve three major problems: energy saving, environmental protection, and safety. New energy vehicles are not equal to energy conservation programs. The conversion of vehicle energy provides a solution to national energy security. New energy vehicles are not directly equated with environmental protection; for pure electric vehicles, whether they are environmentally friendly depends on what primary energy source the secondary energy source is from; even if the charging is from coal-fired electricity, it depends on whether it is peak electricity or valley electricity. ; For pure electric cars whether to save energy also depends on how to reduce the body's wind resistance coefficient, the body's lightweight design how to achieve, braking or deceleration energy recovery efficiency and how to improve motor efficiency. Similarly for the other two types of plug-in hybrid vehicles and range-extended cars in the new energy vehicle category, besides the same technical upgrading requirements as the pure electric vehicles, their engine parts need the same energy-saving and environmental-friendly improvements as the traditional automobiles. The so-called new energy vehicles do not have a big layer of “new energyâ€. They are not “artifacts†that can solve the automobile industry’s way out, and they cannot even be “myths†of the automobile industry. They need to be the same as traditional automobile products. Continuous optimization and improvement can meet the requirements of energy conservation and environmental protection.
Even if the so-called new energy vehicles are engaged in the name of the most important national energy security, then the train of thought should be to gather domestic and foreign technical forces to focus on the technical bottlenecks of power batteries. Once the battery technology has made significant breakthroughs, it can be converted at any time. To the industrialization and scale of new energy vehicles. The problem is that the technical bottleneck of commercialization of batteries has not yet broken through, and hastily drove various car companies to build so-called new energy vehicles, and consumers simply cannot accept immature, unreliable, unstable, and higher-priced new products. product.
When new energy automotive products are still in a state of lack of commodity power, they also use labor and financial resources, and have a large scale. In the meantime, pilot projects in dozens of cities have been carried out. Originally, the pattern of major cities in China is basically the same, and several pilot cities in the southeast and northwest are sufficient to use. The demonstration cities lose their pilot characteristics. What is more, everyone knows that the most basic promotion and application condition for new energy vehicles is that they must simultaneously support a certain amount of social infrastructure for charging and swapping. When the industrial development plan for building new energy vehicles is introduced, it is not exclusive to new energy sources. The development plan for supporting the construction of social infrastructure for automobiles has been introduced. After a small amount of new energy vehicles are produced, new bottlenecks in the supporting infrastructure are encountered in the application, just as peacocks only care about the appearance of beautiful wings and disregard the unpleasant aftermath.
New energy cars are just a reserve of technological models
In the final analysis, the only reason why new energy vehicles are worthwhile is to leave a backdoor for national energy security, and there is no direct causal link between energy conservation and environmental protection, while European and American car companies explore technology models other than traditional automobiles because of strict regulations on energy conservation and environmental protection. Due to the harsh conditions, the purpose of China's new energy vehicles is to take this “curve overtaking†and realize the dream of making the world's automobile industry a powerful force. Different industrial motives will lead to different results. New energy vehicles are, at best, only a reserve of technological models. They are not at all a top priority in market applications. After we have completed key technologies such as batteries, we can even prepare for use or maintain small-scale trials. Once China's energy importation path is completely cut off, car companies can immediately switch to large-scale production of electric vehicles, just as the Soviet Union and the United States converted the automobile plants and tractor plants to the production of tanks and armored vehicles. The oil in the world has not been exhausted. The shadow of the world war was not included. Why do we rush to use the precious coal resources stored in our country to generate electricity to drive electric vehicles? The lithium metal ore source in China can support large-scale production of lithium ion batteries for various vehicles.
Looking back at the development process of China's auto industry during the 36 years of reform and opening up, over 30 years of it have relied excessively on joint venture models to support the passenger vehicle industry, and the lack of domestic self-sufficiency in key components such as engines and transmissions has been neglected. The cultivation of industry has led to the emergence of a number of independent brand car companies that have to rely on Mitsubishi engines for a long period of time to support them. They can only select the international suppliers in China as the main support; when the automobile industry must transition to energy saving and environmental protection, we sit Lost the key stage of capturing hybrid and clean diesel engines. They are looking for a long way to go. They are far away from the so-called new energy vehicles; they have neither captured the technical heights of international electric vehicles, nor have they made the market size of domestic electric vehicles. It also lost the commanding heights of energy-saving and environmental protection technologies on the traditional automobile market.
The lack of a scientific and democratic decision-making mechanism for the development of the automobile industry takes the short-term interests of the industry as the focus and the performance projects to guide the direction of industrial development. When various internal and external factors plagued the rapid growth of self-owned brand groups, they heard that they did not sing. The old corner of the "turning overtaking vehicle" has been turned into a new "Qiangguo" country of the new Qin Qiang.
Politically-driven, new energy vehicle "seeds and beans"