·The car market in 2018

In 2017, China's auto market demand reached 29.15 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and the growth rate dropped by 9.1 percentage points from the previous year. In 2018, faced with the policy environment of the small-displacement vehicle purchase tax incentive policy, the policy of weakening the market and the weakening of the market, the automobile market will be more complicated. The author predicts that the total demand for automobiles in China will reach 29.66 million in 2018, an increase of about 2% year-on-year, of which passenger cars will increase by about 4% and commercial vehicles by about 6%.
Three major factors determine the market demand for passenger cars In 2018, China's passenger car market demand is mainly affected by three factors, one is the law of development, the second is the macroeconomic situation, and the third is the automobile industry policy and accidental factors. The law of development determines the long-term potential growth of the passenger vehicle market; the macroeconomic situation will cause the growth rate of passenger car demand to fluctuate on the basis of the long-term potential growth level; the automobile industry policy and the incidental factors will affect the short-term auto market more. Stimulate or inhibit the purchase of passenger cars for a certain period of time.
1. The law of market development determines the potential growth level of the automobile market. The annual sales volume of China's automobiles has exceeded 28 million. It is estimated that the peak demand of automobiles can reach 42 million, and the gap is about 14 million. The new demand is basically derived from passenger cars.
Judging from the experience of leading countries, Japan, France, and the United States generally hold 15 times of car sales in the same year. Other countries are either high or low, but the average is 15 times. Therefore, the key to China's ability to achieve the peak consumption of 42 million cars is the location of the saturation point in the automotive market.
There are two factors in determining the saturation point of possession. One is the size of the population, and the other is the number of thousand people. Under the influence of the decline of the childbearing age population and the aging population, China's population growth rate will slow down. In the next 10 years, the population will reach a peak, about 1.42 billion to 1.45 billion people. Judging from the situation of thousands of people, the number of passenger cars in the United States is the highest, with more than 800 vehicles. The number of thousands of people in European countries is about 600, and the number of passengers in Italy, France and Germany is 711, 599 and 598 respectively. The number of passengers in Denmark is relatively low. The reason for the 513 vehicles is that the Danish government has imposed high taxes on car purchases on the one hand and the bicycles on the other. Therefore, the purchase demand for cars has been suppressed to some extent. The number of passenger cars in Japan has also exceeded 600. At present, there are only 140 vehicles in China, and there is still a lot of room for development in the future. However, whether it can develop smoothly is mainly affected by three factors: economic growth, population density and purchase restriction, and oil supply.
(1) The peak sales volume depends on the level of economic development Whether the sales volume of the passenger vehicle market can reach the peak sales volume depends on whether the Chinese economy can successfully cross the “middle income trap”. In South Korea, for example, South Korea’s per capita GDP has continued to rise. It broke through the $12,000 mark in the 1990s and became a high-income country. Correspondingly, the number of passenger cars in the city has continued to climb, reaching 350 people at present. The level around. Similar to South Korea, China's per capita GDP in Taiwan also broke through the 12,000 US dollar mark in the 1990s and entered the ranks of high-income. The number of passenger cars in the city has continued to climb to the current level of 290 vehicles. However, in countries with “middle income traps”, such as Brazil and Argentina in South America, 12,000 US dollars has always been the ceiling of GDP per capita. It is difficult to break through, and correspondingly, the number of passenger cars is difficult to move up. About 200 cars are horizontal. It can be seen that the impact of the level of economic development is decisive.
Judging from the spirit of the 19th National Congress, China will build a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020 and win the battle against poverty. In the next 30 years, it has clarified the strategic plan for building a socialist modernized country and "two-step": to achieve socialist modernization by 2035; to build a strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful socialist modernization power by 2050. China's economic development level can reach a level of per capita GDP of more than 30,000 US dollars. At the same time, the goals of the 19th National Congress to expand middle-income groups, increase the income of low-income people, and resolutely win the fight against poverty are also very good for automobile consumption. As the low- and middle-income groups enter the ranks of car buyers, the car-buying group is further expanded.
(2) Population density and purchase restrictions affecting the number of thousands of people By studying the situation in Japan and the United States, it can be found that there is a significant negative correlation between population density and the number of passengers in the passenger car: the higher the population density, the multiplication The lower the number of people in the car, the lower the population density, the higher the number of passengers in the car. Because in areas with high population densities, parking difficulties, traffic congestion, etc., residents tend to have fewer cars. In the United States, for example, the population density in the downtown area of ​​New York reaches 27,000 people/km, and the number of passenger cars in the city is less than 150. In the suburbs with a population density of less than 2,000 people/km, the number of passenger cars is 500. Between ~800 vehicles.
However, China's first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have the opposite situation. In the central urban area with high population density, the number of thousands of people is higher, which leads to the congestion of the central city. Therefore, it needs to be solved through administrative means, that is, purchase restriction. The effect of the purchase restriction policy on sales volume is very obvious, and it is also an important factor restricting the growth of thousands of people. However, in a general city, the population density will determine the level of car ownership in China. According to the national average, China's population density is basically the same as that of major European countries. There should be no large-scale urban purchase restriction, and the future car growth will be mainly In small and medium-sized cities, county towns and rural areas.
(3) Oil supply restricts the growth of traditional energy vehicle demand In 2016, China's oil import dependence reached 65.6%. If other conditions remain unchanged, oil supply will become an important constraint to the growth of traditional energy vehicle demand. Fortunately, China's new energy vehicles and hybrid models will achieve good development, and the tight supply of oil will be expected to be better resolved.
On the whole, under the influence of the development law, the passenger vehicle market will develop at a medium speed in the next decade. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the passenger car market developed well, and the growth rate was roughly equivalent to 1 to 1.2 times the GDP growth rate. Due to the goal of doubling income during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, GDP growth during this period has a bottom line. In terms of a one-time relationship, the potential growth rate of the passenger vehicle market in the next few years can reach more than 6%. However, during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the growth rate of passenger cars will be slightly lower than the growth rate of GDP, and the annual growth rate will also slow down.
2. Macroeconomics affects the growth rate of the automobile market In 2018, China's economic growth rate will slow down to 6.5%. First of all, from the perspective of the development law, when the per capita GDP of the late-developing countries is around 9,000 US dollars, the GDP growth rate will show a gradual slowdown. Secondly, from the perspective of target constraints, as the economy in 2016 and 2017 both exceeded expectations, even under the goal of “building a well-off society in 2020, GDP and per capita income will double from 2010” The bottom line of GDP growth in the next three years also fell to 6.4%. Finally, in the past few years, in order to ensure GDP growth, it paid a lot of money. For example, although the sales of the real estate market in 2016 supported GDP, it led to the accumulation of risks in the real estate sector. The soaring house prices drove up the credit of residents and overdrafted future consumption.
From the perspective of the three major demands (consumption, investment, and export), the current international economic recovery is in good momentum, and the uncertainty brought about by geopolitics has also dropped significantly. The external environment is still good for China's exports, and exports can be maintained in 2018. Steady growth. From the perspective of fixed asset investment, “accelerating the establishment of multi-agent supply, multi-channel guarantee, and rent-and-buy housing system” has been identified as the key work in 2018, and real estate regulation will continue. Under the influence of the policy, it is difficult to sell the previous hot market, and real estate-related investment will also be affected. In terms of manufacturing investment, after years of capacity digestion, the current manufacturing capacity has returned to a reasonable level, and some upstream industries are even in short supply. In 2018, the new government will take on new jobs, entrepreneurs expect stability, and a new cycle of manufacturing investment will be opened. In addition, 2018 is also the beginning of the PPP (Government and Social Capital Cooperation) project, infrastructure investment will receive some support, but given the long construction period of PPP projects, the support is expected to be limited. In summary, the overall investment in 2018 is basically stable, but the investment structure will be gradually optimized. With the hot sale of real estate from 2016 to 2017, all kinds of loans of residents have experienced explosive growth. A large number of loans have overdrawn the consumption power of residents, and consumption is unlikely to have a big improvement, but it will maintain steady growth. Based on the performance of the three major demands, the GDP growth rate in 2018 will slow down to around 6.5%.
The report of the 19th National Congress pointed out: "China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage." Although China's GDP growth rate will slow down slightly, the quality of economic growth will be further enhanced, economic growth benefits will be further enhanced, and economic sustainability will be achieved. More sexual. From the perspective of industrial structure, the proportion of service industry continues to increase, the contribution of emerging service industries to GDP continues to grow, the proportion of high-end industries is also rising, the economy absorbs employment more, the employed population continues to expand, and the income of residents can maintain rapid growth. . Judging from the situation of reform and promotion, the supply-side structural reforms have achieved remarkable results. The de-capacity and de-stocking are progressing smoothly, and the industrial economy stocks are clear, and it is expected to enter a new production cycle. Social wealth is also gradually shifting to residents. Among the three types of sectors, the proportion of households in GDP has also continued to increase. These improvement points are more favorable for passenger car demand based on private household consumption.
3. The weakening of the industrial policy force The role of industrial policy in 2018 will be significantly weakened or even negatively affected. From January 1st, 2018, the purchase tax on small-displacement passenger cars will be completely withdrawn, and will be taxed at the normal rate of 10%. Therefore, in the fourth quarter of 2017 before the policy exit, the stimulating effect of the 75 percent discount on purchase tax will gradually increase and reach its peak by the end of the year. This policy adjustment will affect the market in 2018 from two aspects. First, the overall demand level will fall. Second, the advance purchase will cause significant overdraft of sales in 2018, affecting demand. Therefore, from a policy perspective, the growth rate of the passenger vehicle market in 2018 will be lower than the normal level at this stage.
Commercial vehicle market and policy are closely related In 2018, the main factors affecting the commercial vehicle market are still at the policy level.
The first is to govern the overrun and overload policy. After more than a year of special "governing super" action, the normalization mechanism will be gradually established, and the governance will be maintained. The scope of the overhaul will gradually expand from the highway to the national highway and provincial highway, but after more than one year of vehicle replacement, 2018 The stimulus to demand will be weakened. In terms of over-limit treatment, starting from July 2018, the “transition period” of vehicle transport vehicle rectification will end, and double-row vehicle transport vehicles and non-compliance single-row vehicle transport vehicles will be formally banned. It is expected that the auto logistics industry will usher in the peak of car purchase in the first half of the year. In addition, the 17.5-meter large-size transport vehicle management is expected to commence after the completion of the vehicle transport vehicle management work, which may begin in the second half of 2018. Moreover, due to the compliance requirements of the large-size transport vehicles and the elimination methods, there is no consensus, and the possibility of delaying the re-launch until 2019 is not ruled out, so the impact on 2018 is small.
Followed by environmental protection policies. From January 1st, 2018, the trucks entered the "National Five" era. However, the situation of pre-purchasing before the environmental protection upgrade did not occur on a large scale, indicating that the user's environmental protection concept has changed. Instead of blindly pursuing low prices at the time of purchase, it tends to buy vehicles with higher environmental standards to ensure sufficient Years of use. However, with the increasing emphasis on environmental protection, various localities have introduced relevant policies to encourage the three vehicles to be scrapped in advance through subsidies and restrictions, and various manufacturers have also launched preferential activities, which will stimulate the release of market demand. On the other hand, in terms of air pollution control, in August 2017, the Ministry of Environmental Protection and a number of ministries and commissions jointly issued the “Action Plan for Comprehensive Management of Air Pollution in the Autumn and Winter of 2017-2018 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas”, which clearly defined the “2+26” city ( That is, Beijing, Tianjin, and some cities in Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan) The key work of air pollution prevention and control in autumn and winter of 2017-2018, many construction sites in Beijing and Tianjin have been suspended, the utilization rate of trucks has dropped sharply, and the expectation of users to purchase trucks has begun to change. The actual purchase demand has declined.
The third is the transformation of the logistics industry. Logistics intensification and efficiency improvement are important driving forces in the commercial vehicle market in recent years, which will continue to promote the commercial vehicle market in 2018.

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