China's natural gas prices will rise sharply from April

Natural gas market reforms embark on the "last mile"

Xu Shaoshi, the director of the National Development and Reform Commission who just took office, was the first person to complete the implementation of the previous energy reform plan after the two sessions this year. On March 24th, 2013, the reporter learned from related parties that from April onwards, China's natural gas prices will increase significantly, and its retail terminal prices will reach 3 yuan-3.5 yuan per cubic meter, which will push it toward the 4 yuan mark. .

Comprehensive implementation of gas reform plan

Prior to the two sessions this year, the plan for domestic natural gas price adjustments had already been formulated and completed and submitted to the State Council for approval in accordance with the national administrative approval procedures.

Compared with other traditional energy sources, natural gas prices have been low in China. "In fact, the previous government was also very clear about the development of this market. It was only due to a number of factors that have kept the pressure on natural gas from rising." A deputy to the National People's Congress of the two associations once told reporters.

It is understood that the natural gas price adjustment program has stipulated the price of the highest gas station gates, including 3.14 yuan for Beijing incremental gas, 2.9 yuan for Heilongjiang incremental gas, 3.3 yuan for Jiangsu incremental gas, and Shanghai incremental gas. It was 3.32 yuan, 3.32 yuan for Guangdong incremental gas, 2.58 yuan for Shaanxi incremental gas, and 2.29 yuan for Xinjiang incremental gas.

At present, the domestic natural gas pricing system consists of three parts: wellhead price, city gate station price, and end-user price. This time, the price of gate stations at each station was priced by incremental gas, and the prices of gate stations in 15 cities had reached or exceeded 3.1 yuan. With end-user prices, the natural gas price of 3.5 yuan has become a trend.

In this gas reform program, the National Development and Reform Commission divides natural gas into two parts: industrial inventory gas and industrial incremental gas. Gate station prices in each province are differentiated by inventory gas and incremental gas. Inventory gas is actually used by the province for the previous year. Volume, while incremental gas is the amount of gas used by the user that exceeds the quantity of stored gas.

According to the research report of the relevant institutions, after the implementation of the gas reform program, the average price increase ranged from 0.6 yuan to 0.8 yuan per cubic meter. If the price of imported natural gas in Central Asia is taken into account, the increase in the price of new natural gas may even reach RMB 1/cubic meter.

The country is the chief analyst of research, Chang Rui pointed out that this time, according to factors such as the length of the pipeline, the difference in consumption, and other factors, it is proposed to set a price in the province, which is in line with market rules, so that the gas reform has a strong operability.

Energy structure adjustment

According to a survey, in the past five years, the price of China's natural gas upstream has increased by 50%, while the domestic terminal price of natural gas rose by only 24%. The launch of natural gas price increase and gas reform plan will undoubtedly bring the most direct and greatest benefits to the development of the clean energy industry.

In fact, for a long time, in the context of oil-to-gas conversion, domestic natural gas consumption growth has been far higher than output growth, especially in the season of high seasons in winter, and there are often “gas shortages” in many cities.

Not only that, in order to solve the lack of domestic natural gas resources, natural gas imports have maintained double-digit growth from recent years. In 2010-2012, the price of imported gas in China rose by 68.6%, which led to a serious increase in the domestic sales price of imported gas and the cost of imports. "The gradual rationalization of low natural gas prices, objectively responding to changes in supply and demand in the natural gas market, advancing the sustainable development of the clean energy industry, and accelerating the pace of energy restructuring, is the biggest motivation for the NDRC to initiate the gas reform program," Chang Rui stressed.

At present, as clean energy, natural gas accounts for only 4.03% of China's primary energy, far below the global consumption ratio of natural gas of 23.8%; as non-clean energy, coal accounts for 70.45% of China's primary energy, which is much higher than Economically developed economies in Europe and the United States account for the proportion.

According to market prospects made by authoritative departments, by 2015, domestic natural gas demand will reach 250 billion cubic meters. Of these, the compound gas growth rate for residential gas and natural gas vehicles will be higher than 8% and 29% respectively.

The industry is generally optimistic about this change. Because the natural gas price gradually approaches the market equilibrium price, it will be beneficial to promote the development of unconventional gas, form a strong development trend of tight gas, coalbed methane, and shale gas, and eventually "return" to the promotion of the green energy industry.

Needless to say, this natural gas price increase will increase both the cost of production and the two major costs of life. It is undoubtedly the greatest impact on manufacturing companies and the general public.

How far away from the market

In October 2012, the state successively promulgated the “Twelve Five-Year Plan for Natural Gas Development” and “Natural Gas Utilization Policy”, which clearly defined natural gas prices as one of the main goals of resource product reform during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period.

At the end of the previous year, after two consecutive years of “gas shortage”, the natural gas price reform program finally burst out. The National Development and Reform Commission piloted the reform of the price formation mechanism of natural gas in Guangdong and Guangxi. The main direction of the attack was the change of natural gas prices from "government-led" to "market-led."

The trial of gas reform adopts the method of “market net return value” to formulate the exit station price, conduct price linkage with imported liquefied gas and fuel oil, and then retrograde the gate station price back to the upper ex-factory price of the gas field, and the downstream terminal price. The linkage with the gate station price resulted in the formation of upstream and downstream natural gas prices. "Can't help but say that it is difficult to completely eliminate the existing ills." Chang Rui analysis said, "Although many regions have changed the government to guide the pricing, but still involved in all aspects of pricing. Even in the Guangdong and Guangdong Provinces, the gas price reform pilot. The ex-factory price is still spoken by the country."

It should not be overlooked that at present, the domestic natural gas industry chain has a strong monopoly, and the upstream production enterprises with resources are in a strong position. The middle and lower reaches of the company lacking the right to speak are in a weak position. The upstream, especially ex-factory prices and lack of competition in the pipeline, will lead to the lack of vitality of the natural gas industry chain as a whole.

Cao Changqing, Director of the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission, once stated clearly to the media that the ultimate goal of China's natural gas price reform is to liberalize the ex-factory price of natural gas, which is formed by market competition. The government only manages natural gas pipeline transportation prices that are naturally monopolized.

The industry has an intuitive assessment of the gas reform plan that is about to come out: The natural gas price of 3.5 yuan is a landmark. Above this, it means the arrival of real reforms. Below this point means the continuation of previous price adjustments.

In the next decade, China's natural gas industry will usher in a golden period of development, accompanied by a natural gas dependence rate of 40%. It is hailed as a natural gas industry whose market-oriented reforms are still on the road. It is necessary to review the situation and move forward. The competent authorities have shown wisdom and courage . .

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