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Can the corn sales "turn over" before the year?
[ China Agricultural Machinery Industry News ] Near the year, the pressure on grassroots farmers to increase grain sales, and in the case of improved logistics and transportation, supply pressure will continue to be released. At the same time, the outflow of grain sources in North China and Huanghuai production areas is difficult. About half of the grain sources in the hands of farmers are not sold. In January, foreign workers and peasants return home, and there will be a habit of selling grain.
Can the corn sales "turn over" before the year?
Logistics
Near the beginning of the year, the pressure on grain sales of grassroots farmers has increased. In the case of improved logistics and transportation (the office of Heilongjiang Provincial Government issued a document, during the period of grain purchase and sale from December 20 to April 30, the lawful loading of Heilongjiang The province sells corn vehicle transportation vehicles to implement the green channel policy for fresh agricultural products, and reduces the tolls of highways. The proportion of goods exceeding the limit is not more than 5%. The office of Jilin Provincial Government issued a letter on December 29, from January 10, 2017. From April to April 30, the export of corn to the whole vehicle will reduce the tolls in the province. The supply pressure will continue to be released. At the same time, the outflow of grain sources in North China and Huanghuai production areas is difficult. About half of the grain sources in the hands of farmers are not sold. In January, foreign workers and peasants return home, and there will be a habit of selling grain.
Feed aspect
In the southern region, the production of bacon has entered the peak period, the demand for large-weight pigs has increased, and the north will also enter the peak of the year-old pigs. The pig farmers will gradually release large pigs in January. At the same time, the enthusiasm of poultry farmers will increase. Feed terminal demand is clearly showing a downward trend.
In addition, the situation of tight transportation of wagons and roads in the northeast region has been improved. The low-cost grain in the northeast reaches the southern market, and the supply is sufficient. The contracted grain of feed enterprises has also arrived. The enthusiasm for purchasing corn at this stage is not high. cautious.
Deep processing
With the recent smog in North China, the starch operating rate has returned to 78.9%, but the company is still bearish on the price of corn before the year, and the current procurement is still cautious in the case of maintaining safe stocks. In addition, due to the spread of corn prices in Northeast China and North China, the current low-cost grain in Northeast China has flooded into the door of deep processing enterprises in Shandong Province, causing some enterprises to rapidly reduce the purchase price of corn. Under a series of reduction and exemption measures, the cost of corn transportation in Northeast China has been decreasing recently. The accelerated entry of grain sources in the later period will continue to weigh on food prices in North China.
However, farmers in the northeastern producing areas are now reluctant to sell, and the amount of corn will be affected. If the sentiment is continued, the corn price in the producing area will be supported and stabilized.
It is rumored that the grain storage will increase the acquisition and transfer of northeast corn (Jilin Provincial Grain Bureau will take measures to strive to acquire 7.5 million tons of corn before the Spring Festival. The main measure is to propose a total of 155 stocks in the grain storage, and to purchase 4 million tons before the Spring Festival. The provincial grain reserve completed the 240,000-ton round-up plan. It played the role of the main body of deep processing enterprises, and sought to acquire 2 million tons; COFCO and AVIC each purchased 400,000 tons), and first rotated the reserve bank, and then started the national one-time reserve corn. Replenishment of the library, policies or the introduction of good news, giving the market a good confidence boost.
Port price
Due to the rapid decline in corn prices in the northern ports, the port concentration has been greatly reduced, and the number of the sea is still large. Individual traders and enterprises have slightly raised the corn purchase price this week to attract the volume of goods. The demand for corn in the Guangdong port has picked up this week, and the willingness of traders has increased. The transaction price of corn in the port has rebounded slightly this week.
As the price of corn has plummeted, the price of the north and south ports has been in the low-end area for many years. This week, there has been a moderate rebound. The market continues to fall. It is not big, but near the end of the year, many farmers have the habit of selling grain around the Spring Festival. The selling pressure at the grassroots level is still large, the supply pressure will continue to be released, and the demand for corn is still not obviously improved. The market generally speculates that the grain-supply enterprises will be more rational before the holiday, and the contradiction between the oversupply of corn will only become more prominent, and the price will be difficult to temporarily Great improvement.
Subsidy system
From the perspective of the subsidy system, in 2016, the three subsidies have been merged into agricultural support protection subsidies. The Central Office and the State Council issued the “Opinions on Establishing a Green Ecologically-Oriented Agricultural Subsidy Systemâ€, and the next step is to adjust the agricultural subsidy system. The direction is to guide producers and operators to adopt a natural and environmentally friendly production mode, which is to promote the transformation of agricultural production mode through the transformation of subsidy system.
Another important policy of the reform of the subsidy system is to take into account the interests of ordinary farmers, guide the development of scale operations, and guide the development of the main producing areas or producing areas. Therefore, in the incremental part of the subsidy, the next step is to invest more in family farms and cooperatives, and more to invest in food production functional areas, or important agricultural product production protection areas, as well as featured products and advantageous areas of specialty products, so that the production capacity can be further Concentrate on emerging entities and concentrate on advantageous production areas.
Variety structure
From the perspective of variety structure, corn planting area is decreasing, soybean, small grains, and feed planting area are rising. This is the direction that has promoted structural reform.
How to increase revenue
Around the increase in income, a very important way is to reduce costs. For example, agricultural expenses, through the use of cost-saving, precision seeding, reduce the amount of seeds; reduce the consumption of pesticides through the reduction of chemical fertilizers and pesticides; reduce labor costs through agricultural machinery operations, reduce water consumption and irrigation costs through water-saving irrigation. There is also a crucial aspect to reduce the cost of emerging business entities. It is necessary to guide the rational pricing of land rents and prevent the rents from rising too fast. Under the new grain supply and demand relationship, the land rent should be appropriately lowered, which will reduce the production costs of emerging business entities. It is helpful.