January heavy truck market "to force" Most companies achieve high growth

In the year-end and year-end of 2010 and 2011, the heavy-duty truck industry was cautiously optimistic about the trend of the industry this year, and even some pessimistic arguments were mixed with them.

The basis of caution and pessimism is that the heavy-duty truck industry is closely related to the macro-economy, and the driving speed of the stimulating economic troika in 2011 may decline. Some analysts pointed out that in terms of the Chinese economy, the economic prosperity in 2011 will fall slightly. Investment growth is still relatively fast, but the increase has declined. It is expected that China's fixed asset investment will increase by about 20% in 2011, which is lower than the growth rate of the previous year. The expansion of consumption continues to be effective, and consumption continues to grow rapidly. It is estimated that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China will increase by about 13% in 2011, which is 2 percentage points lower than the previous year. The recovery of the external demand market has been slow and the export growth has dropped significantly. It is expected that imports and exports will increase by about 16% in 2011, imports will increase by about 18%, and the trade surplus will decrease from the previous year. Due to investment, consumption, export troika or lack of power, some insiders speculated that the increase in the heavy truck industry slowed down or dropped sharply.

When forecasting the 2011 heavy truck trend at the end of the year, there are also 10 specific reasons why the industry will be in a downturn:

1. The national economic slowdown will reduce sales of heavy trucks. Heavy truck sales are highly correlated with GDP. The measures taken by the state to control inflation will reduce the speed of economic development and will have a direct impact on the heavy truck market.

2. The change in national monetary policy has led to a reduction in the scale of credit. The reduction of the credit line will lead to a decrease in investment, a reduction in the number of dealer acceptance bills, and a reduction in the amount of support for buying loans from the loans. At a dealer conference, some dealers said publicly that the handling of bank acceptance bills encountered difficulties.

3. The focus of the country's economic policy this year is to protect the people's livelihood, not to engage in construction. A large number of fiscal expenditures will turn from investments to livelihood projects. In December 2010, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, it is necessary to “accelerate the formation of a new phase of economic growth through coordination of consumption, investment, and exports”. This is the first time that “consumption” has been ranked first. Before this, when the Central Government mentioned the three, it was "investment" ranked first, "export" second, and "consumption" third. The change in the ordering of these three groups also shows the country’s economic policy orientation this year.

4. Deceleration in investment in fixed assets.

5. There is a cycle of heavy truck updates. In recent years, the peak of heavy truck purchase will bring about a new peak in two to three years. After the peak of 2010, it will usher in the low period of this update in 2011.

6. The railway freight capacity has been increased to squeeze the road transport market. From January 1st, 2011 at 0:00 am, a new train operation plan will be implemented. The national railway freight transportation capacity will increase by 12.3%. The improvement of freight capacity will effectively guarantee the transportation of key materials such as coal, petroleum, timber, and iron and steel related to national economy and people's livelihood. Among them, only the "Three West" area of ​​coal will be shipped more than 100 million tons. The increase in cargo capacity will surely dampen the demand for heavy trucks.

7. The freight rate dropped and the oil price rose. Year-end and year-end, the freight rate has started to fall, and the ton-kilometer is only a little over 3 cents. Relative to the continuous rise in oil prices, the decline in freight rates will greatly reduce road transport profits. General freight rates will fall, and demand for heavy trucks will decline in the coming days.

8. Last year's soaring factor faded. 2010 overdraft demand for heavy trucks in 2011. Due to the cancellation of road maintenance fees, many users have increased their demand for vehicles in the first two years of last year. The implementation of toll-by-weight fees has also resulted in many transport units' original vehicles not making money. These companies have replaced profitable vehicles. Overloading is unsustainable. In the past, goods that could be pulled by one car now require more cars, which also leads to increased demand for heavy trucks. The pull of demand on these factors will gradually fade this year. Therefore, compared with 2010, many favorable factors for promoting heavy truck sales in 2011 are difficult to sustain.

9. Transport efficiency continues to increase. The number of heavy trucks in China/the total volume of freight in China is far higher than the world average, and it is far from the developed countries. With the improvement of the efficiency of China's logistics industry, it will inevitably reduce the demand for heavy trucks in actual cargo turnover.

10. The promotion of dumping and hanging transport methods. Some people claim that 2011 will be the first year of rejection. The suspension and transportation will be greatly promoted in 2011. This mode of transport will increase the demand for trailers and reduce the demand for tractors.

For 10 reasons, it is well-founded and it represents the views of most market players at the time. However, in January of this year, the sales data of some heavy-duty truck companies (which can represent the heavy truck industry to a certain extent) were "red and purple", making people stunned.

According to the January sales and sales report of China National Heavy Duty Truck, the company achieved a total output of 13,700 heavy trucks in January, an increase of 10.70% year-on-year, and sales of 7,892 cars, an increase of 73.83% year-on-year.

In January, FAW liberated 24,100 medium- and heavy-duty trucks and sold 20,900 vehicles, of which J6's monthly production reached 9112 vehicles, and exceeded its estimated mission by 116%. In January, the liberation trucks produced and sold 20,000 vehicles. It is understood that the January liberation of FAW was originally planned to produce 18,000 heavy trucks. According to the market demand, the company has experienced continuous adjustment of the production plan of the 31 edition, and actually completed 24,100 vehicles, which shows that the market is hot.

According to the latest sales statistics of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, the company sold 32,500 heavy-duty trucks in January, an increase of 45% year-on-year; of which, the headquarters sold 15,700 vehicles, an increase of 43% year-on-year. Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile continued its strong production and sales momentum in 2010. In January, the production and sales of heavy trucks set a new record of 3650 vehicles. Cheng Daocheng, general manager of Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile Co., Ltd. stated that “the production and sales situation in January could be said to have made a good start for the 12th Five-Year Plan, and it also set a new set of 'start-up' for the construction of 100,000 new automobile production bases in Auto City. "Resonance cannons." Dongfeng Liuzhou will total 100,000 commercial vehicle sales in 2011, an increase of 81.8% year-on-year."

Shaanxi Heavy Gas released the news that the company made a good start in the first month, orders exceeded 13,000, an increase of 45%. Shaanxi Steam stated that the good start of the first month gave them confidence in the established target of 150,000 vehicles this year.

Futian Auman, who was ranked fifth in the industry in heavy truck sales last year, could not be informed of its January sales data because its board of directors did not release performance information.

In addition, last year's No. 7 SAIC Iveco Hongyan produced 3691 heavy trucks in January, an increase of 42.67% from 2587 units in the same period. The company's sales in January were 3,197 units, an increase of 53.11% compared with 2,088 units in the same period.

Last year, JAC's ninth-ranked JAC truck produced 3051 heavy trucks in January this year, an increase of 105.18% compared with 1487 vehicles in the same period. The company's January sales were 2,934 units, an increase of 79.89% compared to 1,631 units for the same period.

Although the complete production and sales data of the heavy truck industry in 2011 has not yet been released, the basic situation has been settled. Domestic heavy-duty truck market in January is very forceful. The “red-purple” industry condition makes some industry insiders stunned.