·The growth rate of China's luxury car market slowed down from a happy to a few months

Nowadays, in the face of a marked decline in growth, major luxury brands may be missing the good times of the past.
In the past few years, although the overall growth rate of the Chinese auto market has slowed down, the luxury car market has maintained a relatively high growth rate. In 2014, sales of mainstream luxury brands maintained double-digit growth. For this reason, the sales targets set by major luxury brands in early 2015 are all optimistic. Only now, these goals may become a bubble.
In April, the first camp of luxury cars took the lead in slowing down the growth rate. Among the top three Germans in the market share of 80%, except for Mercedes-Benz, the sales growth of Audi and BMW has dropped below 1%. The major brands of the second-tier luxury car were also spared. The Jaguar Land Rover, which continued to lead the second camp, saw its sales drop drop by 20.9% in April. Volvo's sales in April increased by only 1.8% year-on-year, and sales in May fell by 2.2%.
As of press time, the sales figures of the auto companies in May are not complete enough, but the overall distress trend is expected to continue.
After the collective discounts entered the territory of April this year, the trend of cooling in the luxury car market is very obvious, and the price has also fallen sharply.
Terminals have been greatly discounted in the terminal market, although the major luxury brands have not been "official", but the price war has already been staged and has become hot. According to JDPower's latest price report, some large luxury cars have increased their discounts since March of this year. In April, the discount rate has dropped to an average of 84.7%, which is one percentage point lower than the average discount rate in February.
It is understood that many models of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz currently have large discounts. Audi's two best-selling models, the A4L and A6L, offer discounts of up to 8.5 percent or even 20 percent. In some stores, the BMW 3 Series has a discount of nearly 70,000 yuan, and a Shanghai BMW 4S store has launched a promotional advertisement for "Buy 6 Series, 5 Series, Buy X6 to 3 Series". According to Jaguar Land Rover 4S store sales staff, most models of Jaguar Land Rover also have large discounts, of which the Aurora model has a preferential rate of 100,000 yuan. Volvo's two best-selling models, the S60L and XC60, also have a discount of more than 60,000 yuan.
At the same time, in recent years, all major luxury brands have bet on SUVs, hoping to catch the SUVs to achieve their ambitious goals. Although the SUV is still supporting the sales of major brands, the price has been falling sharply, and the profits that dealers can obtain are also reduced.
"Two or three years ago, whether it was directly added cash, or added to the boutique decoration, luxury brand SUV models have to increase the price to buy, and generally have to wait for a long time, but there are still many consumers waiting to buy." The person in charge of the dealer told reporters that today's "good days" are gone, and the prices of many luxury brand SUVs have fallen sharply. Not only are there many discounts, but they can also buy the cars directly.
It is understood that in fact, before 2014, a number of luxury brand SUVs still need to increase the price, such as Audi Q7, BMW X5, and imported Land Rover Aurora, but their preferential margins have reached 100,000 yuan. Among them, the Audi Q7 is usually listed at the beginning of the listing, usually need to increase the price of 30,000-50,000 yuan to mention the car, and now there are more than 100,000 yuan discount; BMW X5 this premise car needs to increase the price of more than 50,000 yuan, currently there are about 100,000 yuan Concessions; and Land Rover Aurora from the initial price increase of 100,000 yuan, waiting for a few months to pick up the car, has become a discount of about 100,000 yuan today can be cash.
"At present, the entire high-end passenger car market is suffering from price pressures. It may have a higher premium level, but now the prices of high-end products are generally subject to some challenges." Ren Siming, general manager of FAW Volkswagen Audi Sales Division, said so.
Background board downturns ● Audi's growth in China in January-April was 15.1%, 4.2%, 1.5%, and 0.2%, respectively. The latest data shows that in May this year, Audi achieved sales of 47,170 units, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year. The growth rate was slightly higher than that in April, but it still has not reached 1%.
● BMW sold about 38,000 vehicles in China in April, a year-on-year increase of only 0.6%. From the market performance of the previous four months, BMW has sold a total of 153,000 vehicles in the Chinese market, a year-on-year increase of only 5%.
● Mercedes-Benz achieved a contrarian growth in April. Compared with Audi and BMW's sales growth of less than 1% in a single month, Mercedes-Benz's sales in China in April increased by more than 20% year-on-year. In May, Mercedes-Benz's zero sales in China still achieved a year-on-year increase of 19.8%.
Comparing the sales of the German top three to January-April, the gap between BMW and Audi is further narrowed. While Mercedes-Benz is still in third place, its growth rate is the highest. This also means that the competition in the first camp is getting more and more glued.
● Jaguar Land Rover, the leader in the second echelon of luxury cars in recent years, has seen a year-on-year decline in sales in China since December last year. In April this year, Jaguar Land Rover sold 8,289 units, down 20.9% year-on-year; cumulative sales in January-April were 31,815 units, down 20.6% year-on-year.
● Lexus sold 6,752 units in April, down 10.7% year-on-year; 23,206 units were sold in January-April, down 3.6% year-on-year.
● Volvo surpassed Lexus in the first place, but failed to maintain high growth in 2015. Its April sales increased slightly by 1.8% year-on-year, and in May it fell by 2.2% year-on-year.
● Infiniti's sales in April increased by 40.6% year-on-year; in May, it broke the single-month sales record, achieving a 50% year-on-year increase.
● Cadillac's sales in May fell by 10.9% year-on-year after its sales in April fell by 15.43% year-on-year.
The pressure on internal and external pressures is difficult to contradict. To a large extent, the entire Chinese automobile market has been affected by changes in economic growth, and the growth rate has fallen sharply.
"The trend of the times"
"Since this year, China's economic growth has gradually affected various industries including automobiles." Yang Hong, senior manager of BMW China Corporate Communications, said in an interview with the media.
Last week, the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that China's automobile production and sales in May fell below 2 million units, down 5.6% and 4.6% from the previous month, down 0.6% and 0.4% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars in May were 1,670,900 and 1,609,300 units respectively, down 4.4% and 3.6% from the previous month. Although the year-on-year growth was 1.7% and 1.2%, the growth rate dropped sharply by 14.5 and 12.7 percentage points. Prior to this, the China Automobile Association has said that the target of 7% sales growth in the Chinese auto market at the beginning of this year is unlikely to be achieved.
In addition to the increase in internal competition, the pressure from competitors can not be ignored. As more and more luxury brands flood into China, and the variety of models continues to increase, the share of the luxury car market is divided by more brands and models, and competition is further intensified, which has led to a decline in the market share of some brands. For example, in March and April of this year, the monthly sales of Audi's two main hot-selling models A4L and A6L were both overtaken by BMW 3 Series and 5 Series; and in April and May, Audi A4L and A6L single-month sales Compared with the same period of last year, it also showed a downward trend. This shows that Audi's traditional advantages in these market segments are being eroded by competitors.
At the same time, for the three former ABBs (Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz) in the first camp, the pressure from the second echelon is also not small. Since last year, second-tier luxury brands, including Jaguar Land Rover, Volvo and Infiniti, have developed rapidly and their growth rate has surpassed the first camp.
In addition to the tight relationship between production and sales, some industry insiders believe that the increasingly tense relationship between car companies and dealers is also one of the reasons for the decline in sales growth. In the Case of slower growth in the automobile market and high inventory of dealers, most luxury brand car companies still set a sales target of “difficult to complete”, and the production capacity has not been adjusted. The expansion is still continuing, making dealers have to Selling cars in the form of price inversions, the profit margins were repeatedly squeezed, and the survival became more and more difficult, which led to many dealers being very dissatisfied, and there was a situation of not cooperating with work and blatantly resisting. Since the second half of last year, the news that the BMW dealers collectively requested to lower the mission target and increase the rebate has never been interrupted. Recently, Jaguar Land Rover has also been caught in the mud that dealers refused to mention. "In an environment where the growth rate of the whole market is slowing down and competition is fiercer, the contradiction between dealers and OEMs will only intensify, which will make the situation worse." An auto industry analyst said.
Adjusting the price and reducing the target The luxury brand, although not officially down, has adjusted the price system of the existing model through another form.
Official disguised price cuts On May 21, when the sales volume in China exceeded 3 million units, Audi launched the “3 million commemorative edition” models, which were built on the existing models of the Audi A3, A4L, A6L and Q3, respectively. Upgraded, but the price is basically flat. Soon after, on June 5th, at the launching ceremony of the “2015 X Journey” regional trials, BMW introduced the BMW X1 promotion version, which was also upgraded in configuration and basically flat. For dealers, this “additional increase without price” is similar to another form of “official drop”.
In addition, some media recently broke out, Audi this year gave a large discount to the employee car purchase plan - employees to the designated dealer to buy a car, and then at the already negotiated price, the company will give a 2.5% discount. In the view of some industry insiders, Audi hopes to use this internal digestion to boost sales.
At the same time, in order to ease the tension with the dealers, some car companies began to adjust the original production and sales plan. In February of this year, Audi mentioned the sales forecast, and hopes that this year's growth target will remain between 10% and 15%, which is 660,000 units, which is lower than the 700,000 units planned earlier. About 40,000 vehicles. Not long ago, BMW China CEO Ange publicly stated that the company has cut output in China and reduced the supply of vehicles to dealers, which will remain the same in the second quarter. It is understood that BMW has lowered the sales target of the national distributors in the second quarter. Recently, Jaguar Land Rover also plans to cut its second-quarter sales target by 10%-20%, and will launch a series of business policies, such as reducing the rate of payment for variable market rebates by 5 months, adding rebates after the target is completed. The distributors will be subsidized for different models.
In response to sales pressure, Volvo Auto (China) Sales Co., Ltd. CEO Fu Qian said that it will help dealers to clear inventory first. It is understood that the manufacturer has canceled the policy of requiring dealers to bundle XC60 and S60L, and each car will have a subsidy of 3,500 yuan. Dong Lei Infiniti general manager Dai Lei recently announced in an interview that Infiniti has begun to introduce the concept of a small 4S shop, adjusting and reducing the investment scale of 4S stores. Volvo CEO Fu Qiang said in an interview with the media: "This year, it is mainly to help dealers clear inventory, the purpose is to create a more reasonable relationship between manufacturers and distributors."
â–  Magnifying glass luxury second echelon part of the brand competitiveness is worrying recently, from the data released by Volvo, Lexus and Infiniti of the second-tier luxury brand, its sales have risen and fallen, and the overall overall performance is good, but ABB (the first echelon) Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz still have an insurmountable "gap."
The current consumer acceptance is generally low in January-May, Volvo's global delivery volume has dropped 0.1% from 185,881 vehicles to 185,764 vehicles. In China, the number of 31,147 vehicles fell slightly by 0.4% year-on-year to 31010 vehicles. In response to the slight decline, Volvo gave the answer that the new XC90 received a total of 36,000 orders, but these figures are not included in the global sales. Since Volvo has long been focused on “Nordic Security”, the brands of the first echelon are now beginning to enrich various security technologies, making their competitive advantage less obvious. At present, Volvo does not have a lot of products. The sales staff of Beijing Volvo 4S store told reporters that the S40 and S80 models, as the main force, are more attractive to young consumers than the German brands of the same level, and the impulse is not easy.
The same situation also appeared in Lexus. Due to the high positioning of the product itself, the target group also overlaps with the first-line brands, which also leads to the loss of consumers at a certain level. It is understood that in 2014, Lexus sold about 76,000 units, an increase of only 3% compared to 74,000 units in 2013. Due to the low growth rate, it has a huge contrast with the double-digit growth rate of competitors, which directly led to the top five of Volvo's luxury brand sales last year.
Infiniti has achieved a 76% increase in sales of 30,000 units last year due to its small base. In the first four months of this year, its cumulative sales in China reached 11,651 units, a year-on-year increase of 32%. Infiniti’s market share increased from 0.5% in the first half of 2013 to 2.2% in March this year.
The problem is that a single product is difficult to support the entire brand. At present, Volvo's product replacement is generally slower: XC90 has been replaced for 12 years, S80L has been used for 8 years, and this year's S60L and XC90 hybrid models have to be put into the Chinese market. However, these two models are not impulse products; the current SUV market is hot, Volvo's XC40 may be listed in China in 2018.
Looking at Lexus, it has always had different rhetoric about localization. Lexus initially stated that the import sales volume reached 30,000 units and it will be domestically produced. However, with the continuous increase in sales volume, after achieving 50,000 units, Lexus also said that the import sales base size should reach 100,000 units before considering domestic production. According to the annual sales of 76,000 vehicles last year, Lexus is still unable to achieve domestic production. At present, the reporter learned through the Lexus dealers that among the nine models sold, the models that are in the market are only the ES, RX and CT three lower-end models. As the luxury brands compete to achieve domestic production, and the price of new cars is explored, the market share of Lexus is gradually eroded, and the positioning of its luxury brands is gradually marginalized.
On the other hand, behind Infiniti's 76% sales growth rate, the annual sales volume is only 30,000 units, and its follow-up high-selling models for the Chinese market are insufficient. Last year, the localized Q50L was just listed, and it faced a market segment with the most stable market share of other luxury brands. The next domestic SUV QX50 also faced fierce competition in the market segment; the Q70L that will be imported will be imported. Faced with the market of BMW and Mercedes-Benz. After visiting the Infiniti dealers, the reporter learned that since the Q50L and QX50 have been made in China, the price reduction has obviously promoted their sales, but the reporter also found that the few consumers in the store are watching the car after entering the store. Most of them focus on these two models, but they are less interested in other imported models with higher prices.
"Now the entire auto market is a downward trend. The second echelon is good, the first echelon is good, and the growth should be slowed down. In the second echelon, Infiniti is in a short period of time, especially in such a big market. In the environment, it is difficult to change the current relatively backward situation. Volvo should have more confidence in future market growth, and it has such potential. Especially with Volvo's domestic production, China can be gradually exported to the United States or other developed markets. Base. There is also a Jaguar Land Rover in the second echelon, which is currently down in sales, which will create opportunities for other brands in the echelon. Lexus has the biggest pressure because it is not localized, but the Lexus brand influence The force is relatively stronger than other brands. In the United States, for a long time, Lexus ranked first in the US luxury car market. The reason for the high impact of the first camp is also due to ABB’s domestic time in China. It is the longest. Therefore, the second echelon can improve its market share through localization." —Automotive industry analyst Zhang Zhiyong ■ Extending the ultra-luxury brand to join the SUV model
The luxury brands that are in trouble are holding the thighs of SUVs, and some ultra-luxury brands are also pushing their SUV plans. Analysts believe that because the product line is single, the anti-risk ability of ultra-luxury car companies such as super-running is much worse than other car companies. A recession may make the operation in trouble, so the hot SUV is to expand the product line. An ideal choice.
Bentley is said to be releasing a new Bentayga SUV production version at this year's Frankfurt Motor Show. Given that China is one of Bentley's most important markets, this new SUV is expected to be sold in China in the middle of next year. The new car is expected to sell for more than 4 million yuan. .
In Maserati's five-year plan, Levante, its first SUV model, will also be launched this year, with an estimated price of more than 2 million yuan. Rolls-Royce has also confirmed that it will launch its SUV products this year, and the market price is expected to exceed 8 million yuan.
In addition, Aston Martin's Lagonda SUV production model is expected to be launched in 2017; and Lamborghini will also launch Deimos based on the Urus-SUV concept car in 2018, and will be introduced to domestic sales.